A few weeks ago, I was talking to a friend about the 2008 race, and how the *most* important thing to do this time around was to focus on winning the general election with a candidate who can pick up red states with the ease of a '92 (or '96) Bill Clinton, and not have this turn into a just-missed fiasco ala the last two presidential elections. Yeah, we agreed, it's 1992 all over again, when pragmatism ruled the day, and we Dems nominated the person most likely to win in the general election instead of the person we necessarily were most completely in love with on every issue.
But recent visits to places like Daily Kos and MyDD and recent conversations with others who want a change in this country make me wonder if we Dems aren't just a little too cocky for our own good. I've heard comments like, "No *way* can we lose in '08! This country *hates* this war!" Well, that type of comment is half right. This country *does* hate this war, but Democrats *can* still lose this election.
It's a polarized country, and presidential politics is more about the individual candidate than the party. I'm not here to point fingers at any Dem candidate as unelectable but I know for sure that only one Dem is *extremely* well-situated to win in places like Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, West Virginia, Montana, Arizona, Nevada, and Iowa--Bill Richardson.
Stated a little differently, it's not 1992. It's 1988. We've had eight years of GOP rule, and it looks like the country's in the mood for a change of power/party in the presidency, but go ahead and nominate a candidate whom the moderate red states think is too liberal, too out-of-touch with their concerns, too likely to tax and spend them into bankruptcy (and, yeah, I know... GWB has spent more than anyone) and we will lose like Michael Dukakis lost. Dukakis was a decent guy, a well-meaning guy, but he got trounced because this is a big country where the red/blue divide is deeper than ever and, if you haven't noticed, we've been on the short side of that divide twice in a row.
I'm old enough to remember that 1988 election oh-too-well. I thought that the country was ready for a change, and, by and large, they *were*, but only with a candidate with whom they were comfortable. In 2008 Bill Richardson can provide that necessary general-election red-state appeal and still pursue a progressive agenda for change. His foreign-policy experience is second to none and will guide us out of Iraq and into a peaceful solution. His alternative-energy cred is, likewise, impeccable. He will pursue healthcare coverage for all Americans. He is a proven defender of personal liberty and his pro-choice commitment has never wavered. *But* he also has proven that he is not a tax-and-spend chief executive, and, while that may not matter a bit in a blue state, go ahead and add up all those blue states that Kerry (or Gore) won, and what do you get? A close loss, that's what. We can't repeat that mistake again.
It's 1988 all over again, but, if we're smart, we'll treat it like 1992. Vote smart *and* progressive. Vote Richardson.
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As a conservative from the Reagan era, let me say that much of what you said here is right on the money. I've thought for two years that Richardson is the one guy who could carry the states the Dems have built as a base and siphon enough votes to get Arizona, Louisiana, Kentucky, or Missouri.
This is not going to be as 'easy' for the Democrats as most of their supporters wish. Let's face it: Bush is NOT on the ballot. Saying, "I'm not Bush" (which was Kerry's ONLY argument) didn't win when Bush was the alternative, so why should it work when the GOP isn't nominating Bush AND isn't nominating his Veep, either?
It is a SIMPLE FACT that the Electoral College swings in favor of the GOP. It's not as hard a swing as it used to be in one sense - some states (NJ and IL, for example) that used to vote GOP are now pretty solid for the Dems. The PROBLEM, however, is the NUMBER of electoral votes going towards the GOP has increased as NY and PA have lost votes to places like Florida.
Any Democrat who thinks this is going to be 'easy' better get a crying towel when the Dems screw up and nominate Leftist Hillary because it's in the bag - and they lose yet again.
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